3 min read
In August, Germany exceeded the mark of three million unemployed for the first time in years. It was a signal that made many sit up and take notice, particularly given that companies in many industries continue to complain of an acute skills shortage. At the same time, the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) published an increasingly positive labour market barometer.
How do these fit together? And are we currently seeing a genuine crisis in the labour market, or a necessary phase of readjustment?
Where staff are still urgently needed
Despite the economic weakness of recent years, demand for qualified specialists remains high in many areas. Particularly sought after are
- Healthcare and nursing professions, from nursing staff and midwives to doctors.
- Construction, skilled trades and energy, above all with a view to the climate transition and building renovation.
- IT, STEM and cyber security, where digitalisation is creating lasting demand.
- The public sector and education, where suitable applicants are lacking in many regions.
This demand shows that the labour market is not in retreat but on the move, with strong fields for the future.
Where upheaval and adjustment are needed
At the same time, other fields of work are coming under increasing pressure, particularly from structural change and automation
- Industry and automotive: The shift to e-mobility and global cost pressure are profoundly changing job profiles.
- Routine jobs in manufacturing, banking and insurance: Here, automation and digitalisation are replacing many traditional tasks.
But rather than giving in to resignation, the opportunity lies in active change: further training and career reorientation are becoming the bridge into the world of work of tomorrow.
The three-million mark: a warning signal, but not a genuine labour market crisis
In August 2025, the number of unemployed stood at around 3.0 million, and by November it was slightly lower again (2.9 million). The development is serious but not dramatic:
The employment rate is close to historic highs, and many businesses are still desperately looking for qualified staff.
The IAB, too, expects the labour market in Germany to develop slightly positively over the coming months. The IAB labour market barometer for November 2025 stands at 100.4 points, a minimal rise of 0.1 points on the previous month. Values above 100 signal a positive outlook.
What is emerging is structural change that calls for active engagement rather than passive observation.
AI: an amplifier of change, not a destroyer of work
Artificial intelligence acts like a catalyst: it automates processes and changes roles, but it also creates new opportunities.
- At risk: Activities with a high proportion of routine (e.g. data entry, simple back-office tasks)
- In demand: Jobs with a focus on analysis, design or communication, e.g. AI engineers, project managers, nursing staff, specialists in education
The key lies in a skills shift, not in job losses: most occupations are not disappearing, they are changing. Those who invest in digital and AI-related skills today are positioning themselves for the next step in their careers.
What does this mean strategically for companies and employees?
For companies:
- Recruit potential rather than perfection: Career changers in particular deserve more openness.
- Upskill rather than dismiss: Training within your own team is often more efficient than external recruitment.
- People as a location factor: Employer attractiveness is becoming a genuine competitive advantage, especially in regions with shortages.
For employees:
- Learning as protection for the future: Those who actively keep developing remain in demand.
- Seeing a fresh start as an option: Moving into fields with a future is receiving stronger social and political support
Our conclusion:
Germany is currently experiencing not a crisis in the labour market but a phase of adjustment, with challenges but also with plenty of scope to shape the future.
The labour market of the future will look different from today's. But with demographics, the demand for specialists and the smart use of AI, the chances are good that stability and dynamism will go hand in hand, provided companies, employees and politicians shape the change together.
